摘要
该文提出一种不受历史预报档案资料多少限制的集成预报方法．这个方法的基本思想是以各种不同预报的历史评分资料为基础，确定各个预报方法的权重．根据若干原则设计了１６种预报方案．计算结果表明，这个方法具有较高的准确度和可行性，可以用于业务预报．
A regionalized weighted method of consensus forecast is proposed which is not confined by the number of sample. The assemble forecast is got based on the score data of different forecast in Previous Periods.16 kinds of schemes are designed.The results indicate that the method possesses certain accuracy and is able to be used in operational forecast.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第4期428-435,共8页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
"九五"国家重中之重项目
关键词
集成预报
分区权重法
汛期降水
降水预报
Consensus forecast Regionalized weighted method Rainfall during flood season
