月动力延伸预报产品的评估和解释应用

THE SCORE SKILL AND INTERPRETATION OF MONTHLY DYNAMIC EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST

该文用３ 种客观评分方法对国家气候中心的月动力延伸预报结果（５００ ｈＰａ 位势高度场）进行了全面评估．结果表明，延伸预报环流的旬和月平均场预报准确率明显高于持续性预报，有一定的预报技巧和业务参考价值，但仍未达到可用于实际业务预报的技巧．对形势预报进一步分析发现，５００ ｈＰａ 的部分环流特征量模拟效果好，其预报技巧高于整个形势场的预报．根据已有的经验和研究成果，这些环流特征量和要素预报有较好的相关，可以直接在业务中应用．该方法为动力产品的解释应用提供了又一条途径．

Using monthly dynamic extended range forecast (DERF), the 500 hPa geopotential height fields are evaluated with three kinds of scores. The skill of momthly DERF is generally better than that of persistence and climate forecast. The products of DERF can be used as a reference in prediction, but still do not meet the demands of the operational system. Further analyzing 500 hPa geopotential height, it is found that some circulation characteristics are well predicted, their forecasting skills are higher than that of 500 hPa.Some studying results and experiences show that there are better correlations between circulation characteristics and element forecast which could be used in operational prediction. This provides another way for interpretation of DERF products.