第二、三产业对城市化的驱动效应——基于广东实证研究

The Secondary and Tertiary Industry's Driving Effect on Urbanization——An Empirical Research Based on Guangdong

利用1990—2009年广东省的第二产业、第三产业以及城市化的相关数据,通过实证分析发现三者间存在长期协整关系与双向的格兰杰因果关系,而且广东省的城市化的主要推力依旧是第二产业,但第三产业的推动作用也不可小视。最后根据实证结果提出了:进一步采取各种有效措施全面推进城市化建设;制定和完善产业政策,大力扶持和优先发展第三产业等相应的政策建议。

Using relevant data of secondary and tertiary industry and urbanization of Guangdong province during 1990-2009, this article makes empirical analysis and finds that there are long-term cointergration relationship and Granger Causality rela- tionship among the three. The main pusher of Guangdong＇s urbanization is still secondary industry, but the driving effect of tertiary industry also can not be underestimated. It also puts forth some policy suggestions： further adopt effective measures to comprehensively promote urbanization, formulate and improve industrial policies, vigorously support and preferentially develop tertialry industry.