中国城镇居民消费与第三产业发展互动关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Mutual Relation between the Urban Citizen Consumption and the Development of Tertiary Industry in China

采用协整分析、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归模型研究了我国城镇居民消费水平与第三产业发展的动态关系。研究结果表明,城镇居民消费水平与第三产业发展之间存在长期的相互作用关系,但现阶段两者发展还不协调。因此,应以城镇居民消费需求为导向,通过加快第三产业内部结构的升级和优化,实现产业结构的高度化,并最终实现居民消费需求与第三产业发展的良性互动。

The result shows that there exists long term interact relationship between the level of urban citizen consumption and the development of tertiary industry, but the development of both are not harmonious in this phase. The demand of citizen consumption should be the direction to realize highness of the industry structure, quicken upgrade and optimize the inside structure of tertiary industry. Thus, the tertiary industry can satisfy the consumption demand of citizen, and enhance the consumption level of citizen.