金融危机向东亚生产网络的传导:基于垂直专业化角度的解释

Transmission Mechanism of the Financial Crisis to East Asia Production Network: An Explanation by View of Vertical Specialization

金融危机向东亚的传导主要是通过贸易渠道。传统理论对当前的传导机制,尤其进出口贸易波动在各经济体间不均等甚至差异较大的现象未能给出充分的解释。将垂直专业化作为联系经济波动和国际贸易的重要因素引入传导模型,为其提供了新的角度。从模型的推论以及金融危机以来贸易数据的经验分析得出:东亚生产网络的垂直专业化程度较其它区域更高,因而受金融危机影响其贸易波动更为显著;相对于其他行业,电子行业的垂直专业化分工更为典型,导致电子产品贸易对金融危机的反应更加敏感。

The propagation of the financial crisis to East Asia is mainly through trade channel. The traditional theory cannot give satisfying expla- nation to the transmission mechanism, especially the differences of trade fluctuation among the economies. A model of co-movement of internation- al trade and international business cycle, taking vertical specialization as an important factor linking economic fluctuation and trade flow, provides a new viewpoint. The theoretical model, according to the empirical analysis, gives an explanation to this phenomenon, which is that, comparing with other areas, East Asia is more deeply engaged in vertical specialization, thus leading to more considerable trade fluctuation. Moreover, elec- tronics industry, which is more stylized in vertical specialization than other industries, demonstrates more vulnerability to the financial crisis.