人民币汇率与我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的关系

Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate and Cargo Throughput of China Coastal Ports

鉴于传统国际收支理论弹性分析方法的不足以及我国对外贸易的实际情况,仅依靠传统分析方法无法就人民币升值对我国港口吞吐量的影响作出定性判断,故以2005年1月2010年6月人民币实际有效汇率和我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的月度数据为样本,分金融危机前、后两个阶段进行定量考察.由VAR模型得：短期内,人民币升值将减少我国沿海港口货物吞吐量,且沿海港口货物吞吐量受人民币汇率的影响在金融危机以来得到了削弱;由协整检验得：金融危机之前,人民币汇率与沿海港口货物吞吐量之间存在长期均衡关系,但金融危机的发生打破了人民币汇率与沿海港口货物吞吐量之间原有的长期均衡关系.

In view of the defect in traditional elasticity analysis of the balance of payments theory and the actual situation of China foreign trade,it is unable to make qualitative judgments on RMB appreciation impact on the cargo throughput of China coastal ports solely relying on traditional methods.By taking the monthly data of January 2005 to June 2010 RMB real effective exchange rate and cargo throughput as sample data,quantitative examination is conducted.In short term,RMB appreciation would reduce the cargo throughput of China coastal ports,and the impact of the RMB appreciation on cargo throughput is weakened after the financial crisis.Before the crisis,there exists the long-term equilibrium relationship between the;RMB exchange rate and the cargo throughput of China coastal ports,but this equilibrium relationship no longer exists after the crisis.