中国经济转型中的资本市场机遇——基于“四维理论”的分析

考察美国、日本等国历史经验,结合对中国资本市场的研究和实践,本文提出用"四维理论"——即"宏观大背景决定方向,产业小背景精确定位股票,技术分析决定交易时机,心理博弈决定投资成败"为纬度的四维理论来分析资本市场。从宏观、产业、技术及心理角度综合分析,当前资本市场估值处于合理区域,未来存在较大潜力。

According to the historical experience of the United States, Japan and other countries, combined with the research and practice of China＂ s capital market, we propose to use ＂four-dimensional theory＂ to analyze the capital market, which is the microeconomic background decides the direction, the industry background targets on the stocks, the technical analysis determines the timing of transaction, the mental game decides the success or failure of investment. From the perspectives of macroeconomic background, industrial background and technology analysis, currently capital market valuations are in reasonable area, the China＂ s capital market has significant investment opportunities.