中国居民最终需求的碳排放测算

Comprehensive Evaluation of Household Carbon Emissions in China

居民最终需求已成为我国CO2排放量增长的重要原因。为了测算我国居民因最终需求而直接和间接排放的CO2,本文以1992-2007年价值型投入产出表为基础,结合能源消费实物量数据,编制出混合单位的能源投入产出表,从而得到居民CO2间接排放量占居民碳排总量70%以上且呈上升趋势的结论。在能源投入产出表的基础上,通过结构分解模型,对居民最终需求及相关经济活动引致的CO2间接排放量进行分解分析,结果表明:居民最终需求总量、城乡消费比例及居民消费结构三个方面的变化是促进CO2间接排放量增加的因素,以能源消耗系数下降为特征的生产技术的进步是促使CO2间接排放量减少的主要因素。

Household final requirement has become one of main resources of carbon emissions. This paper establishes hybrid-units input-output model by introducing energy consumption physical data. Based on this model, direct and indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural residents are calculated. The results show that indireet carbon emissions account for more than 70% of the total carbon emissions and keep increasing. To analyze and understand change of household carbon emissions in China, this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in indirect household carbon emissions from 1992 to 2007. The increase in indirect carbon emissions has been decomposed into four factors： gross requirement, urban-rural proportion of consumption, consumption structure and energy consumption coefficient which captures advances in technology. Increasing gross requirement is the first important factor for the growth in indirect carbon emissions. Technology advancement is the second important factor which contributes to the decline in indirect carbon emissions.