摘要
针对传染病的传播与控制问题,应用复杂网络进行建模,模型支持非指数形式的传播和康复概率函数,具有准确的预测精度,控制措施考虑边移除和节点移除对传染病发展的影响,控制参数可自由调节。文中利用空穴理论对模型进行了数学解析,得到了可以进行数值计算的解析结果,仿真实验证实了解析结果的准确性。对控制措施的实验表明加强重点人群防控对防治传染病具有重要意义。
The epidemic spread and control problem is studied,and a model with exact predicting precision is presented based on complex networks,in which the non-exponential spread and recover function is considered.The influence of removing edges and nodes from the network is considered in the control strategy,and the control parameters can be adjusted freely.Mathematical analysis for the model is presented through utilizing cavity theory.The analytical results are confirmed by simulation experiments.The experiments on control strategy show that it is very important for the control of epidemic for people with more social contacts.
出处
《电子科技大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期491-496,共6页
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
基金
国家自然科学基金(60904065)
关键词
复杂网络
传染病
免疫
传播
complex networks
epidemic
immune
spread
