甘肃省主要矿产资源需求预测

Prediction of Demand on Primary Mineral Resources in Gansu Province

为了有效预测甘肃省工业化过程中主要矿产资源的需求量，采用人均矿产资源消费与人均GDP“S”形规律理论，系统预测了2010-2020年甘肃省粗钢、铜、铝、锌等矿产资源的需求趋势及需求量，结果显示：当人均GDP为10％～11．5％时，人均粗钢消费峰值点将在2016-2017年到达，届时人均粗钢消费量为463～510kg，消费总量1323．93×10^4t；人均铜消费峰值点将在2015-2016年到达，届时人均铜消费量为28．2～30．1kg，消费总量80．49×10^4t；人均铝消费峰值点将在2010年到达，届时人均铝消费量为35．5kg，消费总量95．78×10^4t。2015年，甘肃省人均锌、镍消费量可达14．47kg、9．48kg。

Applying the S-shape rule theory of per capita mineral resources consumption and per eapila GDP, this paper analyzes and predicts in a systematic manner the demand of the primary mineral resources of Gansu Province in the process of industrialization, concluding that, under the same GDP, the per capita consumption of the crude sleel will reach 163-510kg and the total consumption of crude steel will attain 1 323. 93 ten thousand tons in 2016 2017, lhe per capila consumption of the copper will reach 28.2-30. 1 kg and the total consumption of copper will attain 80.49 ten thousand tons in 2016 2017, the per capita consumption of the aluminum will reach 35.5 kg and the total consun：ption of aluminum will attain 95. 78 ten thousand ions in 2010. The per capita consumption of zinc and nickel will reach 14.47 kg and 9.48 kg in 2015.