我国大中型灌区有效灌溉面积的灰色预测

Effective irrigation area prediction of large and medium irrigation districts in China based on grey system theory

为了准确预测有效灌溉面积为灌区水资源规划提供科学依据,以1973～2008年我国大中型灌区有效灌溉面积的统计数据为分析对象,用灰色理论建立有效灌溉面积的GM(1,1)预测模型,并将其应用于有效灌溉面积的预测。经检验该模型具有较高的预测精度和较强的泛化能力,说明采用灰色系统理论预测有效灌溉面积的方法可行。

Correct prediction of effective irrigation area is very important for ensuring the national grain production and promoting the sustainable development in irrigation districts.We analyzed the statistical data of large and medium irrigation districts of China from 1973 to 2008,and established GM（1,1） prediction model of effective irrigation area based on grey system theory,then applied this model in the prediction of effective irrigation area.The results show that the model based on grey system theory has higher prediction accuracy and stronger generalization ability,and the method presented is feasible,which can provide a scientific basis for water resources planning of irrigation districts.