对稳定浓度目标下温室气体排放路径的探讨

Study on the Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways Aiming at the Stable Concentration Targets

为研究稳定浓度目标下温室气体排放路径的不确定性问题,应用温室气体导致气候变化评估模型(MAGICC模型)和WRE排放情景的数据对2100年温室气体浓度控制在450和550 ppmvCO2当量目标下的排放路径及浓度变化情况进行了研究。结果显示,目标年浓度的变化取决于起始年至目标年的累计排放量和排放路径。将排放路径峰值逐渐调整滞后时,为保证累计排放量不变,需在到达峰值后比原排放路径进行更大力度的减排。温室气体浓度在预测期内将逐渐增加,但目标年的结果变化较小,约为浓度变化最大值的1/3左右。将WRE350和WRE450排放路径的峰值分别调整至2020年和2035年时,与原排放路径相比,浓度改变的最大值分别为6.4 ppmv和22.8 ppmv,而2100年浓度的改变值分别为1.9 ppmv和7.5 ppmv。

The MAGICC model（model for the assessment of greenhouse gas induced climate change） and WRE（Wigley,Richels and Edmonds） emission scenario are used to study the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas（GHG） emission pathways aiming at the stable concentration targets,based on the research of the emission pathways aiming at the 450 and 550 ppmvCO_2e concentration targets of 2100 and the changes of the GHG concentration.The model showed that the concentration target depended on the cumulative emission from starting year to target year and the emissions pathways.If the peak years of the emission pathways are adjusted to delay gradually in order to ensure the certain cumulative emissions,the new emission pathways need greater efforts in emission reduction after reaching the peak.GHG concentrations will increase gradually during the forecast period,but the changes in the target year are relative low,about one third of the maximal concentration changes.When the peak years of WRE350 and WRE450 emission pathways are adjusted to 2020 and 2035 respectively,the maximal concentration changes will be 6.4 ppmv and 22.8 ppmv,while the concentration changes in 2100 will be 1.9 ppmv and 7.5 ppmv respectively,compared to the original emission pathways.