山东省耕地资源与经济增长之间的关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Arable Land Resource and Economic Growth in Shandong Province

耕地数量的变化与经济增长之间存在着密切的关系,当前文献都是从耕种农作物土地的总数量对经济的影响角度进行研究,而没有考虑耕种不同作物土地数量对经济增长产生影响的不同。该文则将耕地分为耕种粮食、棉花和油料作物三类,以1996-2009年山东省17个地级市的面板数据为依据开展了分析,通过统计数据显示:种植粮食的耕地面积呈现出先减少后增加趋势,而耕种棉花和油料作物的则呈现出多样化趋势。通过面板数据的单位根、协整以及因果关系检验得到:耕种粮食的土地资源与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,且二者之间存在双向因果关系;但耕种棉花与油料作物的土地面积与经济增长不存在长期均衡关系。最后,提出为了保持山东省经济的持续增长以及充足的粮食供给,必须保证耕种粮食土地的数量,才能进一步促进经济的增长。

The change of arable quantity is closely related to economic growth.All recent research focuses on the effect of total cultivated land on economy,butnot on the specific effect of cultivated land with different types of crops on economic growth.This paper categorizes the crops into grain,cotton and oil-bearing crops,and takes 17 cities panel data of Shandong province from 1996 to 2009 as the sample to show that the area of land to cultivate grain has the tendency of ＂first decrease,and later increase＂,while that of the land cultivate cotton and oil-bearing crops demonstrate various tendencies.According to unit-root test,cointegration and causalitytest,it can be concluded that there exists a long-run equilibrium and a mutual-cause relationship between the land to cultivate grain and economic growth;but there is no long-term equilibrium between the land to cultivate cotton and oil-bearing crops and economic growth.Finally,the conclusion suggests that the quantity of land to cultivate grain needs to be secured so as to protect the continuous growth of economy and sufficient grain supply,and the stabilized land quantity will promote economic growth in return.