山东省建设用地扩展时空动态及驱动力分析

The Spatial-Temporal Changes of Construction Land Expansion and Driving Mechanism in Shandong Province

随着我国旺盛用地需求与有限土地供给矛盾的日益尖锐,建设用地的空间扩展及其驱动力研究成为了学术界的研究热点。本文利用ARCGIS9.2提供的空间分析方法,基于扩展速度、扩展强度、分维数相关分析模型,对1990-2005年间山东省建设用地扩展的时间特征、形态特征、结构特征进行了分析,并揭示了建设用地的扩展规律,探讨了建设用地扩展的主要驱动力。结果表明,研究期内山东省建设用地扩展迅速,但仍低于同期我国东部地区平均水平,其中,城镇建设用地扩展最快,农村建设用地与其他建设用地扩展速度基本相当;建设用地扩展强度区域差异明显,但与经济发展水平亦没有明确的对应关系,农村建设用地扩展程度区域差异最大,城镇建设用地最小;各地市间,滨州市扩展强度最高,东营市最低;全省建设用地稳定性指数较低,并总体形态趋于复杂化,稳定性指数呈下降趋势,其中,农村建设用地稳定性指数最高,城镇建设用地最低;期内山东省建设用地扩展的驱动因素主要为非农业人口增加、农业人口增加、第二产业增加值等。

Due to the sharp contradiction between strong demand and limited supply of land resources,the research on construction land changes and their driving forces have become an academic focus.Using spatial analysis models of expansion speed,expansion intensity and fractal dimension,etc.provided by software ARCGIS 9.2,this paper analyzed the characteristics of time,morphology and structure for construction land expansion from 1990 to 2005 in Shndong Province,and described the expansion laws as well as the main driving forces.The results showed that the construction land expanded quickly during the study period,but was still lower than the average speed of East China.For different types of construction land,urban construction land had the fastest expansion speed but that of rural construction land as well as other constructive land is relative low.The spatial intensity of construction expantion shows obvious regional variation,having nothing to do with regional economic development.Among different types of contruction land,the expanding regional variation of rural construction land was the most obvious while that of urban construction land was the lowest.As for cities,the expansion intensity of Binzhou is the highest while that of Dongying was the lowest.The stability index of construction land was low in Shandong province,with a decreasing trend during the study period.The stability index of rural construction land was the highest while that of urban construction land was the lowest.The driving factors of construction land＇s expansion mainly include urban population increase,agricultural population,added value of the secondary industry,etc.