无偏灰色Verhulst模型的优化及其应用

Optimization of Unbiased Grey Verhulst Model and Its Application

针对传统无偏灰色Verhulst模型初始条件的选取问题,分别提出了以x(1)(1)和x(1)(n)为初始条件的优化模型,使得原始序列的一阶累加生成序列与其模拟值的误差平方和在理论上达到最小.在此基础上,给出最优初始条件下的无偏灰色Verhulst模型的预测公式,并通过实例验证了优化模型的有效性和实用性.

As to the problem of initial conditions in the grey Verhulst model,this paper proposed optimal unbiased grey model that takes x^（1）and x^（1） （n） as the initial conditions. The new models minimize the errors of the original series and its first-order accumulated generating sequence of simulated values. On this basis, the prediction equations are proposed for the new optimal unbiased grey model. Finally, the effectiveness and the practicality of the model are proved by a real project.