我国外汇储备与货币供给关联性的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Relationship between China’s foreign exchange reserves and Money Supply

从中国外汇储备与货币供给关系出发,考察了在结售汇制度的大环境下,外汇储备对中国货币政策的影响。研究发现,中国货币政策的效果,在很大程度上受制于外贸部门的创汇行为。近年来,顺周期的外汇储备增长与旨在平抑经济波动的货币政策之间的矛盾越来越严重。因此,发展和运用多种外汇干预政策,以及积极推进中国外汇储备管理体制改革,日益成为增强中国货币政策执行效果的重要举措。

This paper investigates the relationship between China’s foreign exchange reserves and money supply under the system of exchange settlement and sales.It is found that the effect of monetary policy in China is highly subject to the act of foreign trade sector.And in recent years,contradiction between the pro-cycle currency reserve growth and monetary policy aiming to stabilize economic fluctuation is becoming more and more serious.Therefore,it is the important initiatives to enhance the effect of China’s monetary policy to develop and use a variety of foreign exchange intervention policy,and actively promoting China’s foreign exchange reserve management system.