证券市场发展与经济增长的协整分析:以北京为例

Co-Integration Analysis of Development of Security Market and Economic Growth:A Case Study of Beijing

文章在对证券市场与经济增长关系研究进行综述的基础上,运用单位根检验、Johansen协整分析、Granger因果关系检验,对北京市1994-2009年证券市场发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,北京证券市场发展与经济增长之间具有长期的均衡关系,但二者之间不存在双向因果关系,其中北京市的经济增长是证券市场发展的格兰杰原因,而证券市场发展不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,表明北京证券市场的发展对经济增长的促进作用还不够,并提出了完善证券市场发展的建议。

On the basis of the retrospection of the papers on the relationship between development of security market and economic growth,the paper,using data of Beijing from 1994 to 2009,conducts an empirical research by unit root test,Johansen co-integration and Granger causality test,and draws the conclusion that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between development of security market and economic growth in Beijing.But there isn＇t bi-directional Granger causality between them.Beijing＇s economic growth is the cause of development of security market,however development of security market isn＇t the cause of economic growth.At last,the paper puts forward some suggestions for improving the development of security market in Beijing.