二氧化碳强度减排目标下我国产业结构优化的驱动力研究

A Study on Driving Forces of China's Industrial Structure Optimization under the Carbon-Intensity Abatement Objective

本文基于产业结构调整具有内生性特征和终端消费随居民收入水平提高具有规律性变化两个基本理念,通过对先进经济体发展经验的实证分析和对我国经济投入-产出结构的分析,量化分析了消费规模及其结构对我国产业结构变化的效果;预测了纯消费拉动下我国未来产业结构演进的特征与二氧化碳强度的发展趋势。研究结果表明:(1)消费规模的扩大与消费结构的升级将是未来我国产业结构优化的主要驱动力之一;(2)为完成碳强度减排目标,必须通过能源需求侧管理项目的实施,引导人们向"低能耗、低排放"的消费模式转变。

This paper is based on two theoretical： one is industrial structure evolves endogenously and the other is that the evolution of consumption structure has regular relationship with families＇ incomes.By empirically studying the pathway of some developed countries and analyzing the Input-output tables of China＇s economy,we analysis the impacts of consumption on industrial structure and forecast the evolution of industrial structure and the trend of CO2 intensity.The results show：（1） The consumption scale and its structure is one of the main driving forces for China＇s industrial structure upgrading.（2） In order for CO2 intensity abatement,it is necessary to implement energy demand-side management and guide the people change to ＂low energy consumption,low carbon emission＂ life-style.