基于国家自然科学基金视角的我国省域基础科学研究空间相关性分析

Spatial Distribution Analysis of Provincial Basic Research Based on Funded Projects from National Natural Science Foundation of China

本文采用我国国家自然科学基金1998-2010年的相关数据,从空间距离的角度分析了科学基金面上项目在不同省域之间的空间分布特征,运用空间统计的方法着重考察了科学基金的空间相关性,并对基金申请和资助活动空间分布趋势进行了预测。结果表明,国家自然科学基金面上项目申请活动已经表现出显著的空间集聚效应,资助活动尚未呈现出显著的空间集聚效应。但如果基础研究活动以现有的速度持续向东部沿海省份集聚,我国基础研究在2015年左右将从现有的非均衡多点式分布模式改变成非均衡单点式分布模式。

Based on panel data of General Program from the National Natural Science Foundation of China（1998-2010）,this paper investigates the spatial distribution characteristic and predicts the distribution trends of the applying and funding activities of NSFC from the angle of space distance by employing spatial statistical methods.The results indicate that only the applying activities of NSFC have shown a significant space cluster effects currently,but the non-equilibrium distribution of basic research would change from multi-point pattern to single-point pattern around 2015,if research activities concentrate to the eastern coastal provinces sustainedly with the existing speed.