重庆大气汞人为排放及其预测

Estimation and Prediction of Atmospheric Mercury Emissions from Anthropogenic Sources in Chongqing

利用排放因子法和灰色预测法对重庆大气汞人为排放进行了研究.重庆大气汞人为排放量从1997年的6.18 t增加到2008年的13.47 t.重庆自1997年成为直辖市以来,大气汞排放量累计达99.76 t,年均增长率为9.82%,其中燃煤和水泥生产汞排放量分别达58.34和22.37 t.以1997─2008年重庆大气汞人为排放数据为依据,运用灰色系统理论建立GM(1,1)大气汞人为排放预测模型,预测了2009─2015年重庆大气汞排放趋势.如果不采取控制措施,预计2015年重庆大气汞人为排放量约30.92 t,年均增长率将高达16.20%.

Atmospheric mercury（Hg） emissions from anthropogenic sources in the city of Chongqing were investigated using the methods of emission factors and grey prediction.Annual Hg emissions were estimated to increase from 6.18 t in 1997 to 13.47 t in 2008,with an average annual growth rate of 9.82%.The total accumulated Hg emissions were 99.76 t.Coal combustion and cement production,which were the largest contributors,accounted for 58.34 t and 22.37 t,respectively.Based on the estimation results from 1997 to 2008,an anthropogenic emission model for atmospheric mercury GM（1,1） was established using grey system theory to predict Hg emissions from 2009 to 2015 in Chongqing.If control measure is not adopted,the results indicate that emissions will increase on average 16.20% annually from 2009 to 2015,reaching 30.92 t in 2015.