汽油价格、税收政策与乘用车市场的微观选择行为——基于需求侧、供给侧和节能减排效应估计

The Effects of Gasoline Price and Tax Policy on the Micro-choice Behaviorin China's Automobile Market

本文运用中国乘用车市场的加总数据和随机系数离散选择(BLP)等模型,在对基本型乘用车(轿车)市场进行需求估计和供给分析的基础上,实证模拟测算了汽油价格和车辆购置税政策对微观个体选择行为的可能影响,并对乘用车市场节能减排效应进行了估计。结果发现:①在需求估计中,平均而言,乘用车价格上升1万元/辆(2006年10月价格),市场份额将下降0.19%;每公里费用上升1元(2006年10月价格),市场份额将下降34.16%。②供给分析表明,排量越大,价格越高的车型,价格成本标高程度相对越小,政策作用窗口越大。③节能减排效果,两种干预政策方案能够使乘用车增量部分汽油消耗和CO2排放量降低5%左右;从政策响应的微观动机看,消费者的替代效应超过了收入效应,生产者的替代效应超过了技术效应;从政策敏感性看,两种政策方案对1.6L<V≤2.0L排量消费者影响最显著,但对V>2.5L排量消费者影响不大,这意味着,购置税政策还有较大的运用空间。总体上看,汽油价格政策敏感性强于购置税政策。

Based on the random coefficient discrete choice model and China＇s car market aggregate data, this paper analyze the demand and supply of car market, and the effect of gasoline price and purchase revenue policy on micro-choice behavior with simulation. The result finds： （1）In the demand estimation, when the price of the car raises ten thousand yuan, it＇s market share will decline 0.19%; when the per kilometer fee raises one yuan, the market share will decline 34.16% on average; （2）In the supply analysis, the greater the delivery capacity, the smaller the price-cost margin index, and the greater the policy effect; （~）In the energy saving and emission reduction simulation, the two intervention policy will reduce the gasoline consumption and CO2 emission of new car about 5%; As a whole, the policy of gasoline price is more sensitive than the purchase revenue policy.