公路货运弹性系数的因子计算方法研究

Key Factor Calculation Method for Elastic Coefficient of Highway Freight Transportation

为全面、有效地分析众多指标因子对货运需求的影响并揭示它们之间的联系,将公路货运影响因子划分为公路货运经济因子和公路货运弹性因子两种,并给出公路货运弹性系数的因子分析法。对某省1980～2005年公路货运指标采用因子分析法进行计算,通过经济因子和弹性因子的关系来获取该省公路货运的弹性系数。结果表明:采用因子分析法进行公路货运需求分析,既能大大减少参与数据建模的变量个数,有效降低变量维数,同时也不会造成信息的大量丢失;各年货运弹性系数总体变化不大,能够较好地反映公路货运与社会经济发展的关系,但利用几何平均法得到的运输弹性系数的发展趋势比较平缓,其波动范围也小于利用算术平均法得到的弹性系数。

In order to analyze the effect of factors on highway freight demand and find the relationship between them roundly and effectively,the highway freight influencing factors are divided into economy factors and elastic factors,and the key factor analysis method about elastic coefficient of highway freight transportation is given.The highway freight indexes from 1980 to 2005 in some provinces are calculated using this method,and the elastic coefficient of highway freight transportation is got by analyzing the relationship between economy factors and elastic factors.The result shows that key factor analysis method can reduce the amount of model variables and not result in the losses of much information.It also shows that all the elastic coefficients change a little,which can reflect the relationship between highway freight transportation and social economy,and the elastic coefficient obtained from geometric average method changes more gently and the change range is smaller than that from arithmetical average method.