经济波动对中国经济增长影响的稳健性研究

A Study on the Robustness of the Influence of Economic Fluctuation on China's Economic Growth

经济波动与经济增长之间关系的理论研究存在分歧意味着经验研究的必要性，针对两者关系的国外经验研究没有得出一致结论，国内已有经验研究发现两者负相关。利用中国1953～2004年的省级数据构造了6个横截面数据模型和10个面板数据模型，对新中国成立至今波动与增长关系的稳健性进行检验，结果表明：波动与增长之间存在非常稳健的显著负相关关系。因此，经济波动通过降低经济增长速度间接给居民带来福利成本，而且稳定政策能够通过抑制经济波动来间接促进经济增长。

The divergence of the theoretical researches on the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth proves the necessity of empirical investigations.Empirical studies in foreign countries have different conclusions,and some empirical studies in China found that the two variables have negative correlations with each other.The paper constructs 6 cross-sectional panel data models and 10 panel data models with China＇s provincial data from 1953 to 2004 to test the robustness of the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth after the foundation of China.The results show that there is a very stable and significant negative correlation between the two variables.Therefore,economic fluctuation brings people welfare costs indirectly by lowering the speed of economic growth,while stable policy restricts economic fluctuations to promote economic growth indirectly.