采用影子价格法的公众气象服务效益定量评估——以京沪穗为例

Implement shadow price to benefit evaluation of public meteorological services:use Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou as example

公众气象服务效益资料获取主要是通过社会抽样调查.影子价格法是公众气象服务效益评估最常用的方法之一.采用中国气象局公共气象服务中心在全国范围内搜集的10430份有效问卷,运用影子价格法比较分析北京市、上海市和广州市的公众气象服务效益评估结果.通过比较分析发现在公众气象服务方面产生的效益对经济社会发展的良性影响最大的是北京,其次是广州,最后是上海,并且认为影子价格参数的科学确定和问卷的质量是影响公众气象服务效益值的关键因素.

The basic method of collecting data for benefit evaluation of public meteorological services is public questionnaire.＂Shadow Price＂ is one of the most frequently used methods in benefit evaluation of public meteorological services.Based on 10 430 valid questionnaires from public meteorological service centre of CMA,the benefits of public meteorological services in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou were compared and analyzed using ＂Shadow Price＂ method.The results showed that the most significant effect of public meteorological services on the society and economics development was in Beijing,followed by Guangzhou and the last was in Shanghai.Parameter selection of ＂Shadow Price＂ and quality of the questionnaires are the two key factors influencing the benefit evaluation result of the public meteorological services.