从布什到奥巴马:美国对国际制度政策的延续与变化

From Bush to Obama: Continuity and Change in U.S.Foreign Policy Toward International Institutions

人们预期从乔治·W·布什总统到巴拉克.奥巴马总统的过渡将使美国外交政策向多边主义转变。然而,这种预期至今已被证明是错误的。这在很大程度上是因为,不论其思想倾向如何,后冷战时代的战略环境对美国每一任总统奉行多边主义外交政策的能力设置了结构性限制。在国际上,缺乏共同的大国威胁削弱了美国与盟国间的制度交易,从而使得多边合作更难以达成意见一致的条款。在国内,冷战的结束削弱了总统的权威,却赋予了利益受到多边承诺威胁的否决者以很大的权力。然而,结构并非天命。了解政治约束的来源,就可以提出策略以克服或绕过美国外交政策中有关多边参与的障碍。若想在国外行使多边领导权,一位总统必须重新谈判美国参与国际制度的条款,同时塑造一个令人信服的理由,动员国内民众的支持。

Expectations that the presidential transition from George W.Bush to Barack Obama would produce a multilateralist turn in American foreign policy have thus far proven misplaced.This is largely because the strategic environment of the post-Cold War era places structural constraints on the ability of any U.S.president of whatever ideological leanings,to pursue a consistently multilateralist foreign policy.Internationally,the absence of a shared great power threat has undermined the institutional bargain between the U.S.and allied states,thus rendering the terms of multilateral cooperation more difficult to agree upon.At home,the end of the Cold War has undermined presidential authority and empowered veto players whose interests are threatened by multilateral commitments.Nevertheless,structure is not destiny.Understanding the sources of political constraint can suggest strategies for overcoming or bypassing such obstacles to multilateral engagement in U.S.foreign policy.A president who wishes to exercise multilateral leadership abroad must seek to renegotiate the terms of U.S.engagement with international institutions while fashioning a compelling rationale that mobilizes public support at home.