北京市人口老龄化趋势和可持续发展研究

A study on the trend of the ageing of the population and sustained development in Beijing

根据第４ 次全国人口普查，北京市６０ 岁以上人口１９９７ 年已达１４ ％ ，到２０２５ 年时将达３０ ％左右。老年抚养比将超过少儿抚养比，这不仅劳动年龄人口抚养负担过重，还将出现劳动力不足。但北京市的老年人口的整体素质高，离退休人员多，相对收入较高，不过老年户中无子女比例大，这一状况将对经济发展、医疗保健产生重大影响。为此，我们建议：一是要重视人口老龄化的问题；二是抓住机遇发展经济；三是制定积极的老龄人口的政策和相应法律法规；四是优化卫生资源配置，其中主要解决上下倒置和功能错位的问题，其具体办法可通过统一规划布局、实施重组和改造，满足社会需求。

According to the fourth nationwide census, residents in Beijing who are aged 60 and upwards accounted for 14% in 1997, and by the year 2025, the figure is expected to reach 30% and the proportion of aged people needing support will exceed that of children. This will mean not only an exceedingly heavy burden of support on the shoulders of the job age population, but also a shortage of labor. However, the aged population in Beijing is characterized by overall high quality, a large portion of retirees, relatively high income, and a fairly large ration of childless families, which will greatly affect the citys economic development and medical and health care. For this reason, it is suggested that importance be attached to the issue of the ageing of the population, opportunities be seized for economic development, vigorous policies and corresponding laws and regulations be formulated, and allocation of health resources be optimized. The chief problem to be solved in the last aspect is the malposition of functions. Such specific measures as unified planning and recombination can be adopted so as to meet the needs of the society.