价格变动对目标性状经济值及育种效果的灵敏性分析

Sensitivity analysis of price changes on the economic value of objective traits and breeding gains

基于鲁西牛育种、生产和市场体系,通过构建与目标性状相联系的遗传变量和经济变量的利润函数,采用偏微分预算法和基因流动法分析价格与目标性状经济值,以及目标性状经济值与育种效果之间关系的稳健性和灵敏性。结果表明,目标性状的经济值和育种效果随着市场体系的变化而变化,且育种效果的变化和目标性状经济值的变化相关联。以上结果说明,当前市场价格体系下获得的目标性状经济权重随着市场价格变化应做适宜的调整。

Based on cattle breeding, production and marketing system, stability and sensitivity of changeable prices were analyzed between price and economic value , and analyzed relationship between economic value and breeding gain by constructing objective traits associated with the genetic variables and economic variables of the profit function, using partial budgeting method and gene flow method. The results showed that the economic value of the goal traits and breeding gains were changing as changes of the market system, and there existed a relationship between the change of objective traits values and breeding gains. The research completely showed that economic value of the target traits derived from current market price system should be doing the right adjustments as the market price changing.