降雨与边坡地下水位关系的时间序列分析

Time series analysis about groundwater level in slope and rainfall

针对边坡地下水位监测工程中存在的监测成本高且长期监测稳定性差的问题,提出以监测降雨量辅助地下水位监测的方案.考虑到降雨与地下水位的相关性,研究通过降雨量数据间接估计地下水位变化趋势的方法.将基于统计理论的单因素时间序列分析法,根据影响因素类别的数量拓展至多维空间,建立降雨-地下水位关系的多因素时间序列分析模型,探讨影响地下水位变化的各因素作用规律及滞后效应,分析降雨影响阈值.将建立的降雨-地下水位分析模型应用于官家村滑坡工程实践中,根据该滑坡的前期监测数据建立模型对地下水位进行长期预测,并与实测数据进行对比,验证了该模型在边坡地下水预测领域中的有效性.

The monitoring engineering of groundwater in slope costs high and its long-term stability is poor.Monitoring of rainfall was introduced in order to optimize and assist the groundwater monitoring program.A method for indirect estimation of groundwater level variation trend based on rainfall data was developed according to the relevance between rainfall and groundwater level variation.The univariate time series analysis which belongs to statistical analysis was extended to multi-dimensional form according to the number of factor types.A multivariate time series analysis model about the relationship between rainfall and groundwater level variation was established.The influence pattern and retardation time of each factor affecting the groundwater level variation were discussed,and the rainfall threshold was analyzed.The analysis model about the relationship between rainfall and groundwater level was used in the landslide project in Guanjia Village.The model was established and used to long range forecast for groundwater level based on the preceding monitoring data.The validity of the model in forecasting was verified according to the comparision between predictive and measured values.