美国对华反倾销反补贴并用影响因素研究

A Study on Influencing Factors of the Export Trade Impact of the United States′ Anti-dumping and Anti-subsidy Against China

本文选取1995～2009年度数据,采用负二项计数模型来探究中国频繁遭受美国"双反"调查的根本原因。研究发现,美国对华发起"双反"调查的宏观决定因素主要包括:美国国内经济形势、美元对人民币实际汇率的变动、美国对华进口渗透率以及美国国内政局变化。其中,美国国内GDP增长率下降、进口渗透率提高以及美元对人民币汇率贬值会显著增加美国对华"双反"调查的数量;而失业率对于美国发起对华"双反"调查数量的影响则与预期不符。

This paper uses a negative-binomial-counting model to explore what are the primary causes of the fact that China frequently encounters both anti-dumping and anti-subsidy from the U.S.by selecting annual data from 1995 to 2009.The result shows that the macro causes of the U.S.launching a survey of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy include that the U.S.domestic economic situation,the changes of the real exchange rate between U.S.dollars and RMB,the U.S.import penetration and the U.S.domestic political change.Among these causes,decline in the U.S.GDP growth,increase in the import penetration and the depreciation of the exchange rate between U.S.dollars and RMB will significantly increase the numbers of the U.S.survey in anti-dumping and anti-subsidy,and the influence from the U.S.unemployment rate is incompatible with our expectation.