基于协方差分析描述函数技术的弹道导弹落点预报

Ballistic Missile Impact Point Prediction Based on CADET

针对采用Monte-Carlo方法对非线性系统进行统计分析效率低下的问题,将协方差分析描述函数法(CADET)应用于弹道导弹落点预报与精度分析。介绍CADET方法的统计线性化思想,提出一种针对一阶可微随机变量函数的统计线性化方法,建立弹道导弹被动段的均值和方差计算的CADET模型。该方法通过一次计算就可得到随机变量数字特征随时间的变化,与传统的Monte-Carlo抽样方法进行比较,结果得到有效验证,所需时间远少于后者,对省时、高效地实现对模型的统计分析具有一定意义。

To address the low efficiency problem caused by adopting Monte-Carlo technique to analyze non-linear model, an approximate analysis approach CADET is applied for ballistic missile impact point prediction and precision analysis. The theory of CADET is introduced briefly, a simple but effective statistical linearization method for first-order differentiable functions of random variables is presented, and a CADET model for variables calculation during unpowered phase is developed. The changes in time related numeral characteristics of a random variable can be obtained by only one-time calculation. The simulation result is verified by comparing with the result from traditional Monte-Carlo technique. This paper is of a certain reference value for effective model analysis.