灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用研究

Application of Gray Metabolism GM(1,1) Model for Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Prediction

随着时间的发展,任何一个灰系统都会加入一些未来的扰动因素,对系统的发展产生影响。而常规灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在建模时,采用的是现实时刻t=n为止的过去的数据,没有考虑这些扰动因素。故离现实时刻越远,该模型的预测精度就越低。针对这种情况,提出了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型。并尝试用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型对阜新市参考作物腾发量进行预测。结果表明:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型的预测精度较常规灰色GM(1,1)预测模型有了明显的提高。该模型建模过程简单、适用性强,为参考作物腾发量的预测提供了新的方法。

With the development of time,any grey system will be added some prospective disturbance factors,which will bring influence to the system development.But the normal GM（1,1） model adopts the past data up to the moment that t=n in real time without considering these new disturbance factors,so the further away from the real time,the lower accuracy predetermination.In view of this situation,the gray metabolism GM（1,1）forecasting model is presented in this paper and used to predict reference crop evapotranspiration of Fuxin city.The result indicates that the gray metabolism GM（1,1） forecasting model has a higher prediction accuracy than other normal grey GM（1,1） forecasting model.It has simple model-establishing process and high applicability,and provides a new method for the reference crop evapotranspiration prediction.