经济增长、国际资源品价格与输入性通货膨胀——基于扩展的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

Economic Growth,International Resource Commodity Prices and Imported Inflation——An Empirical Analysis Based On the Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve

在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型中引入国际资源品价格变量、货币供应量、人民币名义汇率,扩展新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,并利用SVAR模型进行实证检验,结果表明,"中国因素"已经成为当前国际资源品价格上涨的主要动力,其影响力度强于美元流动性、弱于美元汇率;中国的经济增长、国际资源品价格上升和输入性通货膨胀具有共生关系;输入性通货膨胀因素的影响强于经济增长、货币供应量因素和人民币升值的影响;货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响具有滞后性。因此,应大力发展期货市场,鼓励国内大型企业参股或者控股国外资源开发公司的股权,加强政府对国际大宗商品采购的宏观指导;同时,应加速调整中国经济增长结构。

By drawing the international resource commodity prices variable,money supply,nominal exchange rate of RMB into the New Keynesian Phillips curve model,establishing the extended New Keynesian Phillips curve model and using the SVAR model to make empirical tests,the result indicated that the＂China factor＂became the main power to promote international resource commodity prices.Its impact strength was stronger than US dollar liquidity and weaker than the dollar exchange rate.China＇s economic growth and the rising of international resource commodity prices and imported goods prices inflation had a symbiotic relationship.The impact of imported inflation was stronger than economic growth,RMB appreciation and money supply factors etc.Money supply on inflation showed a hysteretic nature.Therefore,we should vigorously develop the futures market to encourage large domestic enterprises participating or holding shares of the Foreign resources development companies,strengthening government procurement of bulk commodities on the international macro-guidance,and further adjusting the structure of China＇s economic growth as well.