我国三大产业电力消耗影响因素的分解分析

DECOMPOSED ANALYSIS OF AFFECTING FACTORS ABOUT ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION OF THREE MAIN INDUSTRIES IN CHINA

基于改进的Kaya恒等式,将电力消耗的影响因素分解为经济增长、产业结构和电力强度,并采用LMDI法的时间序列分解方式研究了这些因素对我国三大产业2000～2007年电力消耗的影响轨迹。分解分析的结果表明:总体上经济增长、产业结构和电力强度因素均对三大产业的电耗增长具有推动作用,其中经济增长是各产业电耗增长的最主要原因,2000～2007年其贡献高达93.65%。但是2006年以来产业结构和电力强度变化已显示出明显的节电效应,2006～2007年的产业结构调整使得电耗减少了741.30亿kW.h,同期电力强度降低亦使电耗的减少量达1 643.70亿kW.h。如果未来我国经济保持增长态势,那么电耗将持续增加,而大力发展清洁电力、优化产业结构和降低电力强度是我国电耗降低的主要途径。

Based on Kaya-equation,the affecting factors of consumption of electric power were decomposed into economy growth,industry composition and intensity of electric power.And they were analyzed based on the time list decomposition way of LMDI method during 2000~2007.The outcomes of decomposed analysis show that economy growth,industry composition and intensity of electric power are all have some positive effect on the increase of consumption of electric power as a whole.And economy growth is the major factor causing the growth of consumption of electric power;its contribution attained 93.65%.But since 2006,industry composition and intensity of electric power have been displaying some kind of electric power mitigation effect.During 2006~2007,741.30 hundred million kWh had been reduced for the change of industry composition and 1 643.70 hundred million kWh for the depress of intensity of electric power.Study results show that the consumption of electric power would increase if China′s economy keep developing,and adopting clean power,adjusting industry composition and reducing intensity of electric power are the main approach to make China′s consumption of electric power decrease.