基于EFDC和WASP模型的突发水污染事故影响的预测预警

FORECASTING AND WARNING THE ACCIDENTAL WATER POLLUTION EFFECT BASED ON THE EFDC AND WASP

近年来,我国突发水污染事故频发。长江作为我国最重要的水源地,其水质安全受到沿江众多化工企业可能突发污染事故的威胁。因此,开展南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测预警研究意义重大。基于EFDC和WASP模型,建立了南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测模型,并以龙翔甲苯罐区泄漏为例进行了事故情景模拟。研究表明:所建的预测模型能够对南京化工园突发水污染事故后污染物的水环境行为进行快速的模拟和预测,并且能够在地理信息系统的图层上以动画的形式实时展示事故影响的范围和程度,可以为南京化工园突发水污染事故的预警应急提供决策依据;基于EFDC构建的二维水动力模型能够较为准确地反映研究区的水动力情况;事故情景中排放的甲苯在研究江段能够较快地稀释扩散,挥发作用对甲苯的衰减过程影响显著,平水期比枯水期更有利于水体中甲苯的衰减。

Recently the accidental water pollution happened frequently in China.The safety of water quality of the Yangtze River,one of the most important water resources in China,is threatened by multiple industrial enterprises along the river,in which the pollution accidents may possibly break out.As a result,it is important to develop the forecasting and warning research of the accidental water pollution effect of Nanjing Industrial and Chemical Park.Based on the EFDC and WASP,a forecasting model for the accidental water pollution effect in Nanjing Industrial and Chemical Park was developed.The functionality of the model was illustrated through an emergency scenario of toluene spilling in the Long Xiang enterprise.The result shows that the forecasting model proposed is capable of rapid simulation and forecasting for water environmental behavior of contaminants released in water pollution accidents;besides,the range and extent of the accident effect can be displayed in real time in the form of animation on the GIS layer.The research is utilized to aid decision-making for accidental water pollution warning and rehearsing in Nanjing Industrial and Chemical Park.The 2-dimension water dynamic model can precisely describe the hydrodynamic field in study area.The toluene released in the scenario was diluting and diffusing rapidly in the study area and influenced dramatically due to volatilization.Compared with low-water period,the mean-water period was more advantageous in the attenuation of toluene in water.