三江平原地区粮食产量预报模型研究

Study on the Forecasting Model of Grain Yield in Sanjiang Plain Region

运用聚类分析方法依据农业气候条件对三江平原地区进行分类，在此基础上，选取玉米、大豆、小麦三种作物产量的预报点，建立了作物产量的定性和定量预报模型，即年景趋势预报模型、逐步回归周期分量预报模型和多层递阶预报模型。统计检验和实际预报结果表明所得到的预报模型是有实际意义的。

The cluster analysis is used to zone agroclimatic in Sanjiang plain region, based on the zoning result representative forecasting sites were selected and model for qualitative and quantitative forecast of yields of corn, soybean and wheat were established, including the model of the year's harvest tendency, stepwise regression periodical component model and multilevel recursion forecasting model. Statistical test and forecasting result show that the models can give accurate forecast of the yield the three crops significantly.