基于压力-状态-响应的城市轨道交通客流预测综合后评估体系研究

Comprehensive Post-evaluation for the Passenger Prediction of Urban Rail Based on PSR

城市轨道交通客流预测后评估是一种对预测全过程的技术性评估,涉及到诸多因素。在分析实际客流与预测客流准确性影响因素的基础上,利用PSR(压力-状态-响应)构建城市轨道交通客流预测综合后评估体系。评估结果的可信性和指导意义在很大程度上了取决于指标体系和评价方法的选取。探讨了基于PSR的城市轨道交通客流综合后评估方法,借以实现提高客流预测技术和改进运营组织的目的。

Based on the effective factors of the passengers on rail transit, this paper builds the comprehensive indicators for the post-evaluation of urban rail transit passenger prediction with PSR （pressure-state-response model）,discuoses the evaluation methods and provides the application of this model to improve the technology of the passenger prediction and operation.