基于季节调整的四川居民消费状况实证分析

The Empirical Research on the Residents Consumption in Sichuan Based on Seasonal Adjustment

由于种种原因,目前中国居民消费的比重偏低,出现了结构失衡。因此,准确把握当前的消费状况和特征,对于制定扩大消费需求的对策来说具有重要的意义。随着灾后重建项目的逐步完成,投资对四川经济的作用日趋减弱,在净出口额并不是很大的状况下消费便成了拉动四川经济增长的主要因素。文章在分析四川居民消费时间序列数据的基础上,运用季节调整的方法,准确分离出消费的长期变动趋势、季节变动趋势、不规则变动因素,并提出了刺激消费、扩大内需的对策建议。

Because of various reasons, the proportion of the residents consumption in China is low with structural imbalance. Therefore, to research on the ctLrrent situation and characteristics of the consumption is great significant for the consumption expansion. With the gradual completion of post-disaster reconstruction projects, the role of investment in growing the economy has weakened in Sichuan. Because the net export situation is low, the consumption has become a major factor of economic growth in Sichuan. This paper analyzes the time-series data of the consumption in Sichuan, uses the seasonal adjustment methods, isolates accurately the long-term trends, the seasonal trends, the irregular variations of the consumption, and proposes the countermeasures to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand in Sichuan.