能源强度与经济增长相互制约关系分析

Interdependent Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Economic Growth

以我国1985-2008年的相关数据为样本,利用动力学系统均衡理论分析能源强度与经济增长的相互制约关系,实证结果表明人均GDP增长率7.5%和能源强度下降率4.2%的规划目标切实可行,但能源强度下降对经济增长的负向作用不容忽视,如果经济增长仍保持更高速增长,则进一步降低能源强度将更为困难;人力资本效率增长依赖于经济增长,加大人力资本投资有助于降低能源强度,但效果不明显,可行的降耗途径在于技术进步。因此,能源强度下降程度应以技术进步相适应,产业结构调整和市场化有利于促进技术进步。

The interdependent relationship between energy intensity and economic growth is analyzed by using dynamic system theory and the China′s data samples from 1985 to 2008.The empirical results reveal that： government planning of per capita GDP growth rate at 7.5% and energy intensity decline rate at 4.2% are feasible,but the negative effect of energy intensity on economic growth should not be ignored,and if economic growth remain more rapid,it will be more difficult to reduce energy intensity;human capital efficiency depends on economic growth,and increasing investment on human capital is helpful to reduce energy intensity,but the effect is not very obvious and the feasible way to reduce energy intensity is to push technology progress.Therefore,the reduction of energy intensity must be adapted to technological progress,and the adjustment of the industrial structure and marketization are favorable to promote technological progress.