传染病疫情周分析存在的问题与建议

Opinions on Weekly Analysis of Epidemic Situation

目的为了更好地利用传染病疫情周统计数据,探讨疫情周分析的问题。方法从网络直报系统获取全国和镇江市按周统计的传染病疫情数据,包括初表和终表数据,对获取的数据进行分析。结果全国传染病周报告数绝对值大,各周数据波动较小;镇江市传染病周报告数绝对值小,各周数据波动很大;周报告数的终表数总是低于初表数。结论网络直报系统以当年初表数据和往年终表数对比,进行传染病疫情周分析,产生报告数升高的错觉,这一问题应引起重视,加以解决;是否必须进行常规的传染病疫情周分析,每周撰写书面的疫情周分析报告,应根据不同情况,对各级疾控机构应有不同的规定。

Objectives To make better use of the weekly statistical data of epidemic situations and discuss the problems of the weekly analysis on epidemic situation.Methods The weekly epidemic situation data（including preliminary reports and final reports） from the internet-based reporting system was collected and then analyzed.Results The absolute value of the reporting cases is high in the national data and with a little fluctuation.On the contrary,the absolute value of the reporting cases is low in the Zhenjiang data with obvious fluctuation.Besides,the number of weekly reporting cases in the final reports is always lower than that in the preliminary reports.Conclusions The weekly analysis on epidemic situations based on the comparison between the preliminary reports this year and the final reports last year,so it can lead to an illusion of increasing cases according to the reports,which should be brought into careful consideration and resolved soon.Whether to carry out routine analysis of epidemic situations weekly and write analysis reports weekly,it should be decided based on different situations and different CDCs.