长江中下游梅雨与北太平洋OLR关系的诊断分析

Analysis of the Relationship Between Plum Rain in Lower Yangtze River and OLR of North Pacific

利用长江中下游流域25站1954年-2001年共48年逐日梅雨量资料和美国NCEP／NCAR同期逐月降水量资料和射出长波辐射（outgoing longwave radiation，简称OLR）资料，采用EOF分解、Z指数、合成分析和点相关分析等多种现代诊断分析方法，详细讨论了长江中下游梅雨与北太平洋OLR的关系。结果表明：长江中下游梅雨量与西太平洋暖池区及东太平洋漂流区OLR呈显著正相关，说明西太平洋暖池区及东太平洋漂流区OLR异常增强（减弱），长江中下游梅雨异常偏多（偏少）。长江中下游梅雨量与西太平洋至东海、黄海一带OLR呈显著负相关，说明当西太平洋至东海、黄海一带OLR异常增强（减弱）时，长江中下游梅雨量异常偏少（偏多）。合成分析和点相关分析的结果完全一致，并且通过信度0．05的显著性水平检验。

The relationship between plum rain in lower Yangtze River and OLR of North Pacific was discussed based on daily data of plum rain from 25 meteorological station from 1954 to 2001 and NCEP/NCAR in same period using the EOF, Z index and so on. The results show that there was a significant positive correlation between plum rainfall in lower Yangtze River and OLR of Western Pacific warm pool region and Eastern Pacific drift region. There was a significant negative correlation with OLR of Western Pacific, East China Sea and Yellow Sea. The results of synthesis analysis and point correlation analysis were exactly same and passed the 0.05 significance test.