基于灰色系统的桥梁长期变形预测研究

Predictive Research on Long-term Deformation of Bridges Based on Grey System

针对大跨径预应力混凝土箱梁桥长期变形影响因素众多,影响机理不明确,计算理论不完善的现状,基于灰色预测理论,以虎门大桥辅航道桥的实测挠度数据为基础,建立桥梁长期变形预测系统,计算结果表明:只要对原始数据作合理的处理,预测系统计算得出的数据精度完全能够满足工程需求,这为桥梁长期变形控制提供了一种依据。

Aiming at many influencing factors,unclear influencing mechanisms and imperfect theories of computation for long-term deformation of large-span prestressed concrete box girder bridges and based on grey predictive theory,this paper establishes a predictive system for long-term deformation of bridges on the basis of measured deflection data of auxiliary waterway bridge of Humen Bridge.The calculated results show that if only original data are reasonably processed,the data precision calculated by the predictive system can completely satisfy engineering requirements and this provides a basis for control of long-term deformation of bridges.