基于VEC模型的城镇化动力机制研究——以新疆石河子垦区为例

A Study of the Motive Mechanism of Urbanization Based on VEC Model——Taking Shihezi,Xinjiang as an Example

城镇化是多种因素共同作用的结果,这些因素构成城镇化动力源,它们之间相互组合、相互影响的关系构成城镇化动力机制。该文以新疆石河子为例,从包含制度因素的产业结构转换角度构建城镇化动力机制指标体系,建立VEC模型,从长期和短期两个纬度研究城镇化各动力因素与城镇人口增长之间的动态关系。研究表明,农业是石河子地区城镇化基础动力;工业化和制度变迁构成石河子地区城镇化根本动力;服务业是石河子地区城镇化持续发展动力。

Urbanization is the result of many factors that constitute the source of power of urbanization, and the relationship between their mutual combination and mutual influence constitutes the motive mech- anism of urbanization. Taking Shihezi, Xinjiang as an example, this paper constructs the index system of motive mechanism from the angle of transformation of industrial structure containing the factor of in stitution; furthermore, it makes use of the VEC model to analysis the dynamic relationship between power factors and urban population growth from long--term and short--term dimensions. Research shows that agriculture is the basis of urbanization of Shihezi; industrialization and system transformation constitute the fundamental motivation of urbanization of Shihezi; tertiary industry is the guarantee of the continuous development of urbanization of Shihezi.