狂犬病病例暴露后发病风险及疫苗接种的判别分析

Discriminant analysis on the hazard-rank and vaccination of human rabies post-exposure

目的对狂犬病病例暴露后发病风险及是否接种疫苗进行判别分析。方法对2004-2009年河南省狂犬病例进行流行病学调查,用SPSS15.0建立数据库,对病例暴露后发病风险及疫苗接种进行判别分析。结果 Fisher线形判别函数判别结果显示,病例暴露后高发病风险判别正确率为51.0%,中发病风险判别正确率为34.2%,低发病风险判别正确率为67.7%。未接种疫苗者判别正确率为85.1%,接种疫苗者判别正确率为74.5%。结论狂犬病病例暴露后发病风险的判别分析符合率较低,暴露后是否接种疫苗判别符合率较高。

The data of 468 human rabies cases from 2004 to 2009 in Henan Province were investigated and examined by SPSS15.0 to explore the discriminant analysis on hazard-rank and vaccination of human rabies post-exposure.The results showed that in Fisher discriminant function,the correct discriminant rate was 51.0% for high hazard-rank,34.2% for middle hazard-rank,and 67.7% for low hazard-rank.The correct discriminant rate was 74.5% for vaccination post-exposure,and 85.1% for non-vaccination post-exposure.In conclusion,it is difficult to classify the hazard-rank of human rabies post-exposure,but the discriminant analysis could classify vaccination post-exposure.