摘要
再售期权和货币幻觉两个因素分别从投资者对未来现金流分布的信念差异和对贴现率估计偏差的角度解释房地产价格泡沫的形成和膨胀。本文以上海商品住宅市场为例,运用动态剩余价值模型从租金房价比角度测度上海房价泡沫水平,并检验再售期权和货币幻觉对上海房价泡沫的解释作用。经验分析发现,上海商品住宅市场存在再售期权和货币幻觉效应,其中货币幻觉效应对房价泡沫影响具有不对称性但解释作用更强,建议应重点关注高通胀和实际负利率对房价泡沫的影响。
Resale option induced by heterogeneous beliefs about future cash flow and money illusion whereby investors mistakenly use normal discounted rates can provide coherent explanations for house price bubble theoretically.Using Shanghai＇s house price data,the article applies dynamic residual value model to estimate Shanghai＇s house price bubble,and finds resale option and money illusion do provide explanation for house price bubble.The results show that money illusion has asymmetric effects and strong explanation power on Shanghai＇s house price bubble.We should highly focus on the influence of high inflation and real negative interest rate on house price bubble.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第8期28-32,共5页
Shanghai Finance
基金
2009年国家社科基金重大项目"中国货币供应机制与未来通货膨胀风险研究"(批准号09&ZD36)的阶段性成果之一
关键词
租金房价比
再售期权
货币幻觉
Rent Price Ratio
Resale Option
Money Illusion
