2000-2010年我国金融体系脆弱性的分析与测度

The Analysis and Measurement of Fragility of China's Financial System from 2000 to 2010

基于国家金融信息平台"新华08"从2000年到2010年我国金融监管当局和统计部门的数据,结合十年来我国实际经济运行状况和全球经济形势,在前人研究的基础上,本文对影响我国金融体系脆弱性水平的指标进行了选择,并且采用因子分析法做出了定量的测度。结果表明,十年来我国金融体系脆弱性水平有了长足的改善,其中流动性风险逐渐减少,信用风险和外汇风险不断波动。基于此,本文提出相关政策建议:防止突然的流动性反转、严控房地产市场的波动带来的信用风险、提高汇率风险管理水平和管理工具的操作水平以合理配置外汇资产。

Based on the data on national financial information platform ＂Xinhua08＂ about China＇s financial regulators and statistics department from 2000 to 2010,the article combines China＇s real economic operation with global economic situation in the recent decade,takes previous researches as basis,selects indicators that affect the fragility of China＇s financial system,and conducts quantitative measurement by factor analysis method.The results show that the level of fragility of China＇s financial system has been improved considerably： liquidity risk declined gradually,but credit risk and foreign exchange risk fluctuated consistently.On this basis,the article gives out some policy suggestions： to prevent a sudden reversal of liquidity,to prevent credit risks by strictly controlling the volatility of real estate market,and to allocate rationally foreign exchange assets by improving exchange rate risk management and operation skill of managerial tools.