基于脆性结构崩溃的复杂系统安全事故致因分析

Causation Analysis of Complex System Safety Accident Based on Brittle Structure Collapse

为探索复杂系统安全事故的本质致因,为安全事故的预防提供有效措施,对复杂系统结构崩溃的必然性进行分析,指出复杂系统的结构是一种具有潜在崩溃趋势的脆性结构。通过分析复杂系统脆性结构的崩溃过程,对复杂系统的安全状态和连锁崩溃进行数学描述,提出控制安全关键子系统崩溃的策略。在分析复杂系统结构脆性因子及其关联的基础上,构建基于熵的复杂系统安全度模型,结果表明,安全约束的缺乏或失效是复杂系统安全事故的本质致因。

In order to explore inherent causation of complex system safety accidents and offer effective measures for controlling safety accidents,the inevitability of complex system brittle structure collapse is analyzed,which indicates that the system structure of the complex system is a brittle structure possessing latent collapse trend.The mathematic description of the safety condition and chain collapse of the complex system is gained by analyzing the brittle structure collapse process,and the method for control the collapse of the safety key sub-system is offered.On the basis of analyzing the complex system structure brittle factors and their relationship,the system safety model based on entropy theory is gained,the result shows that the lacking or destruction of the safety constraint is the inherent causation of complex system safety accident.