城市综合承灾能力评价的分形模型

Fractal Model for Evaluating Urban Comprehensive Disaster-carrying Capability

基于结构决定功能的系统原理,运用分形理论,构建城市综合承灾能力分形评价模型。首先构建了城市综合承灾能力评价指标体系;其次进行原始数据标准化处理及指标数据之间相关性的消除;接着进行研究对象的分形评价与分维计算;最后通过对29个城市实例进行计算,并与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法进行比较验证,得到各城市综合承灾能力属于相对较强、中等和较弱的各占13.79%6,5.52%和20.69%。实例分析结果与各城市承灾能力实际状态基本一致,显示该方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价等级结果。

A fractal method for urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability is proposed on the basis of system principle that structure determines function.Firstly,evaluation indexes of urban disaster-bearing capacity are constructed.Secondly,the raw data are standardized and correlations among the index data are eliminated.Thirdly,the objects are studied by fractal evaluation and fractal dimension calculation.Finally,the fractal dimensions of 29 cities are calculated and analyzed.The calculation results are compared with those obtained by fuzzy assessment method and exponent method.The results show that the cities belonging to strong level,middle level and weak level account for 13.79%,65.52% and 20.69%,respectively,which is completely consistent with the actual situation.So the method can give an assessment result by using a characteristic index that reflects the complex correlations among indexes.