IEA的石油储备释放计划:缘起、影响与启示

The IEA's oil reserve release plan:its origin,effects and implications

2011年6月23日国际能源机构(IEA)宣布计划释放总量达6000万桶的石油储备,以缓解利比亚原油出口中断对国际石油市场的冲击。本文认为,此次石油储备释放计划的出台,是金融危机以来主要发达国家面临经济复苏乏力和公共政策工具匮乏的产物,具有试探性,以观察其对国际油价和相关各国的影响。鉴于本次储备释放量的有限性、欧佩克可能作出的负面反应以及抵消性的挥发-抑制效应,本次储备释放对油价的影响将是比较小的。但考虑到世界宏观经济状况的不确定性,对其后续影响仍需谨慎判断。中国正在逐步形成庞大的石油储备规模,对IEA特别是美国石油储备释放的历史考察,有助于促使中国认真思考、谨慎建构科学的战略石油储备运用制度。

The International Energy Agency(IEA)announced an oil reserve release plan of 60 million barrels on June 23,2011,to respond to the market shock of export disruption by the war in Libya.This plan was prompted mainly by pressure from the weak economic recovery and a public policy vacuum in the main developed countries, and is designed to stabilize the international oil price and market tentatively.Considering the limited quantity for release and OPEC's negative reaction,and aside from its volatility-depressing effect,this oil reserve release plan has had little effect on the world oil price.Due to world macroeconomic uncertainties,follow-up analysis would be prudent.In building up its huge oil reserves China should investigate the history of IEA and US oil reserve releases to have a knowledge-base for managing China's.