对我国甲醇产业发展的几点建议

Advice for China's methanol industry

2010年,我国甲醇产能为3500万吨/年,表观消费量为2092万吨,然而,产量仅为1574万吨,装置开工率仅为45%,进口量达529万吨。预计2015年国内甲醇需求量在4000万吨左右,而甲醇产能将达到5000万吨/年,届时产能将过剩1000万吨左右。考虑到中东廉价甲醇对国内市场的冲击,国内甲醇过剩量将更大,市场前景不容乐观。建议:1)严格控制新增产能,淘汰落后产能;2)推进甲醇燃料合法化,消化过剩产能;3)在沿海地区发展甲醇制烯烃产业,以减少进口甲醇的冲击。

In 2010 Chinese methanol production capacity was about 35Mt,apparent consumption was 20.92Mt, methanol production was only 15.74Mt and making the capacity utilization rate was only 45%and 5.29Mt of methanol consumption had to be met by import.Domestic demand for methanol is expected to be 40Mt in 2015, while domestic methanol production capacity will reach 50 Mt/a,leaving an excess capacity of 10Mt.The impact of lower-cost Middle East methanol on the domestic market will be to increase domestic excess capacity, making the market outlook seem not so optimistic.Here is some advice to deal with this prospect:1)strictly control the expansion of production capacity and eliminate outdated industrial capacity;2)endeavor to legalize use of methanol fuel to solve the problem of overcapacity;and 3) develop the methanol-to-olefin industry in coastal areas to minimize methanol imports.