宏观审慎监管:两大经济思潮交替下的选择

On Macro-prudential Supervision:Choice under the Condition of Alternation of Two Economic Trends

20世纪西方经济学发展史是自由主义与国家干预主义论战的历史,伴随着经济的起起落落,两大思潮不断交替更迭。而2008年金融危机的爆发彻底葬送了自由主义倡导的崇尚自由市场、政府尽量少监管理念,加强政府干预、建立宏观审慎监管体系成为金融监管发展的主要趋势,以新凯恩斯主义为代表的国家干预主义又一次成为经济学的主导。传统的古典经济学一般是从垄断、外部性和公共产品等角度来解释金融监管的必要性的,而新凯恩斯主义则从金融内在不稳定、信贷周期和金融加速器、信息不对称、协调失灵等方面来解释金融监管,并提出了分散化定理,认为没有政府干预,就不能实现有效率的市场资源配置。新凯恩斯主义的这些理论从宏观层面为宏观审慎监管提供了理论依据。

The development history of 20th western economics is a history of debate between Liberalism and state interventionism.With the ups and downs of economy,there is a continuous alternation of the two ideological trends.With the outbreak of financial crisis in 2008,the idea of free market and fewer government supervision that liberalism advocated does no longer make effects,and strengthening governmental intervention and establishing macro-prudential supervision system has become a main advantage of financial supervision development.And the state interventionism represented by New Keynesian has again become the leading part of economics.Traditional classical economics explains the necessity of financial supervision from the perspective of monopoly,externalities and public products.However,New Keynesian explains financial supervision from the perspective of internal instability of finance,credit circle and financial accelerator,information asymmetry,coordination failure.In addition,I propose decentralized theorem,and without governmental intervention,the effective market resource allocation can not be realized.The theory of New Keynesian provides theoretical basis for macro-prudent supervision from the perspective of macro level.